Ireland has been experiencing a spell of unsettled weather in recent months and has already been hit by three storms - Agnes, Ciaran and Debi.
With the winter months looming, long-range weather maps have started hinting at the possibility of snow in parts of the country.
This has prompted one weather expert to issue a reminder about the unpredictability of extended forecasts, which often chop and change due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere.
Alan O’Reilly took to his popular Carlow Weather social media accounts on Wednesday to share a video update on the upcoming weather.
READ MORE: Ireland weather: Rain forecast to sweep across the country with 10mm possible in one area
Citing an outlet that claimed 5cm of snow is coming to Ireland in two weeks, he explained: “The GFS weather model this morning did show some wintry weather over us. The 5cm would have been on the top of Lugnaquilla, even on their charts, top of Wicklow Mountains. But the next update shows the cold weather is nowhere near us.
“There is a chance of some colder weather coming towards the end of the month, yeah there is, but it’s a chance, it may not come near us at all and it may just be cool. The chances of snow is very, very, very slim and trying to forecast that is pretty much impossible at the moment that far out, so I don’t think I’ll be stocking up on snow boots just yet.”
Met Eireann has also warned about the unpredictability of long-range forecasts. The national forecaster issues regular extended range forecasts.
It said: “The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast. This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere.”
The meteorological agency’s currently long-range prediction covers the rest of November and early December. In an update that may come as surprising to some, it says temperatures are expected to remain around average or above average, with no mention of snow.
For the week of November 20 to November 26, it said: “During week 1, high pressure situated close to the southwest is signalling slightly warmer than average temperatures for the period in most areas, although temperatures remaining close to average along eastern coasts. Precipitation amounts are expected to be slightly below average in parts of the east and south of the country while in the north and east precipitation is expected to be slightly above average.”
Looking ahead to the week of November 27 to December 3, it continued: “Currently high pressure is forecast to dominate Ireland’s weather for this week, steering weather systems away from our shores. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above average in many areas, however temperatures more around average along eastern and southern coastal areas. As a result of the influence of high pressure, precipitation is expected to be below or around average in most areas, with perhaps the far northwest having slightly above average precipitation amounts.”
As the calendar flips to the week of December 4 to December 10, the forecast reads: “There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for week 3 and confidence decreases for this week. However current indications suggest, slightly wetter than average conditions in most areas, although there is a chance that rainfall in the southeast will be closer to average. Temperatures are forecast to be around average.”
The extended forecast concludes with the week of December 11 to December 17, which says: “Confidence is low in the forecast for week 4 and there are no strong signals. However, temperatures may be around average in week 4, and rainfall may be close to average in the midlands and east, but elsewhere rainfall may be above average.”
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